Since the election I’ve kinda buried my head in the sand to try and stay sane, so I’m not sure what projections are looking like for the real estate market. Unfortunately I need to move pretty ASAP and I’m having the worst luck with rentals.
So, anyone have any advice or an idea of the outlook in the next few months?
Not answering your question. But if you do buy, don’t listen to the realtor or loan officer about how big a loan you can afford. Both are incentivized to sell you the biggest house/loan. Neither will care when you’re struggling to pay for it.
You’re monthly payment plus insurance plus taxes should be something you could safely pay for six months while unemployed. If that’s impossible, get a small house. The worst possible situation is being house poor.
I made the decision to buy at a bad time, and it turns out the mortgage rates went much higher than what I bought at. I have no idea if that will happen again, but my mental health absolutely benefited from owning my house over the stress of renting and waiting to find out if I need to move every year again.
Same, mortgage rates were near record high when I purchased but the circumstances were otherwise right. Mortgage ended up being a little over half the cost of renting and won’t go up every damn year, and homes aren’t getting cheaper. Plus there’s the option to refinance in the future if rates drop enough.
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Imo, yeah, probably. Home prices are fucking divorced from reality, but anyone telling you that we’re in a housing bubble is selling you a bridge. We basically stopped building housing in 2008- that’s almost twenty years now you ancient millennial* fucks- and what housing has been built has been small batches of single family homes where they don’t build more until that small batch sells. On top of that, you’ve got housing having been transformed into an investment (read that in a tone of disgust, please) with vacation rentals, REITs, and the landlord hustle further restricting supply. All that to say that the big fundamental difference between 2008 and now is that we’re massively short on supply. For there to be a price crash, we’d either need people to just stop needing a place to live on a massive scale or we’d need to start plunking down a commie block in every small or larger city a week for years (spoiler alert, not gonna happen)
I’m working with Strong Towns and some other groups trying to push the city to build a lot more housing and make our city more affordable to live in by breaking car dependency. With any luck, we’ll be able to unwind the absurd price of housing over years. I’d plunk down commie blocks of I could, but I can’t, so slowly deflating home prices over decades is the most realistic thing I can probably hope for. In other words, if you do buy, you’re unlikely to end up underwater by much.
* Am a millennial, am old fuck
It’s always a good time to buy if you are confident that you will live there for 3-5 years. Even pre 2008 crash, homes recovered in about 5 years.
The important part is avoiding becoming house poor. The payment you can qualify for and the payment you can afford are very different. There’s plenty of online calculators that can show you what a payment would look like. In many states taxes can increase dramatically after the first year, so be prepared to pay more in the future. For a down payment, 20% is ideal but often unrealistic for a first time buyer. More is better, but don’t clean out your entire account. You can put as little as 3% down, but that’s a good sign you can’t afford it if anything goes wrong
You can test drive a payment level while watching the market. Pick the price bracket that you think might be your max and calculate the payment. Then set up an automatic recurring transfer from your checking to a savings account for the amount of the theoretical house payement with escrow - current rent. This will help you see if you can manage a higher payment or if you will feel too house poor. Those savings transfers can be earmarked for the downpayment too.
When figuring out how much of a downpayment you can afford, don’t forget to reserve money for closing costs which can be thousands of dollars. You will also need to reserve some emergency funds, and expect to buy a significant number of tools in the first few years. Yard care tools, ladders, etc. really add up.
If you look at places that need a little work, do your best to arrange to have all that work done before you move in. For example I wish we had our floors refinished before we moved in. To do that now would be a lot like moving twice.
There is rarely a “good” time to buy a house. You need to do what makes financial sense for you. If it makes sense financially to buy a house right now, then I’d say do it.
