I’ve read a good amount about this, and while by traditional measures there isn’t technically a recession, many real‑world signs make it feel like one. What do we think? I don’t think this breaks the 6 rule, it’s an economic question.
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If AI wasn’t propping up the numbers, we’d be officially in a recession
Remember. AI doesn’t create value, it steals it from others.
In the stock market it does both!
Makes you wonder whether the calculations serve anyone other than the top 0.1%.
Their portfolios bring up the average for the US because some swinging dicks decided that a (temporarily) decisive strategic advantage in faster calculators makes the graph look “good.”
Meanwhile, people are hungry, getting furloughed, evicted, bombed, arrested, bound, gagged, and shot in America. Democratic institutions, the fundamental raison d’être for the American experiment, are undermined, bulldozed, disregarded, or blown up.
That’s fine, they say. That’s who and what they VOTED for. That’s the mandate, they say.
Horseshit, I say.
Surely the definition of ‘recession’ would just be changed again. Easier to move goal posts than to admit you lead the horse to a mirage.
Part of me wonders if it’s a recession, or if the ultra rich have finally squeezed everyone to the point it feels like one.
I’ve made more money this year than I ever thought I would, like double the most my parents have ever made and yet it doesn’t feel like I thought it would.
The question “are we in a recession??” always makes me think of the SNL at-home headache test commercial:
Same. Even adjusting for inflation, if I went back and told myself 10 years ago what I’d be earning in 2025, past me would think it’s “buy-whatever-I-want-money.” I can buy everything I need, but I never seem to have much left over.
The numbers were always a little sketchy and politically filtered, but now you can’t trust/use any information. The institutions are gone, political hacks are in charge and truth is dead.
there isn’t technically a recession
And if the economy were shrinking, would the US government statisticians actually release reliable data that says so?
I don’t know if this link will work, but Moody’s just released a statement that almost half of US states are in a recession. Closer Look on GPB had a Moody’s economist on their podcast today:
Episode webpage: https://omny.fm/shows/closer-look-with-rose-scott/moodys-analytics-says-georgia-nearing-a-recession
Just as an FYI, there is an organisation that declares recessions in the USA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bureau_of_Economic_Research?wprov=sfla1
Like a lot of good questions… “it depends”.
Good read here!
https://fortune.com/2025/10/09/america-feels-recession-state-dependent-income-cohort-moody-zandi/
Some states, yes. Some, no.
Some states will get pushed to “Yes” if SNAP benefits are reduced or eliminated.
Based on what I’ve been reading, it would be in a recession if not for the AI investment money flooding into the tech sector. Let’s hope AI lives up to the hype, eh?
This has been called out as a bubble bigger than Too Big To Fail by everyone on every side of the political spectrum but ancaps.
I’d compare it to the dotcom bubble. A lot of companies are going to die by AI. A few will thrive.
We will see, I suppose.
You have had an almost 20 years of recession since 2008. The global economy never recovered to the previous trend. So if you think things are getting bad and then worse, you are correct.
Nope, the populace is under stupid strain, but the economy is just slow, not contracting.
Given everything that is going with AI and Trump though, it probably would be a good idea to be prepared for one hell of a recession next year.
if you remove the AI circular spending bubble, we are 100% in a recession already.
and that’s if you trust the data, which arguably has been far too fucked with to be useful for years now.
Should be in freefall by next November. Good news for the midterms… I guess.
There tends to be a political backlash after presidential turn over, all the added backlash on this mid term is going to be epic before even taking the economy into account.
@[email protected] up in here downvote bombing everyone alone
we are in a recession and knocking on the door of a 2nd great depression
People around me have been saying it feels like the start of a depression, not just recession. Are those different?
a recession means you might lose your job
a depression means you might lose everything
unless you own it, it can be taken from you in both scenarios.
There’s no real way to officially know anymore. Data is dead.
