Model suggests the once-dominant Scottish National Party could lose 64.6 percent of the total seats it won in 2019 — an even higher share than the dire night projected for the Conservatives.
Undoubtedly the SNP are in trouble this election. Because MPs in Scotland really don’t matter. Whatever England decides, we get. Because of devolution the role of an MP is almost nothing too. Do ya think any MP can do anything about HMG foreign policy? Do you think Labour will grant Holyrood an independence referendum even if all MPs are SNP? It is an almost hopeless scenario for independence in Scotland at the moment, having been denied any democratic route. Turn out to be lowest in Scotland I’ll bet, which will appear then like a swing to Labour, but I bet it almost exactly corresponds with SNP voters not turning out this election instead
And this is a real shame, as the SNP have shown themselves to be the real opposition in the commons on many occasions. Labour and the Tories share almost all key policies.
There’s also the simple fact that there’s almost nowhere for the SNP to go but down. Virtually any result would be a loss for them because there are so few seats that they could have but currently don’t. All the drama with the end of Sturgeon’s tenure and Yousaf’s brief leadership will not help them either (plus, of course, just the loss of Sturgeon as a very effective politician).
They do have a ridiculous proportion of Scotland’s seats right now, though. They won those seats completely fair and square, but FPTP makes them unbelievably overrepresented compared to their actual vote share. It’s a shame that they’re the biggest party that wants to actually do something about that
Undoubtedly the SNP are in trouble this election. Because MPs in Scotland really don’t matter. Whatever England decides, we get. Because of devolution the role of an MP is almost nothing too. Do ya think any MP can do anything about HMG foreign policy? Do you think Labour will grant Holyrood an independence referendum even if all MPs are SNP? It is an almost hopeless scenario for independence in Scotland at the moment, having been denied any democratic route. Turn out to be lowest in Scotland I’ll bet, which will appear then like a swing to Labour, but I bet it almost exactly corresponds with SNP voters not turning out this election instead
And this is a real shame, as the SNP have shown themselves to be the real opposition in the commons on many occasions. Labour and the Tories share almost all key policies.
There’s also the simple fact that there’s almost nowhere for the SNP to go but down. Virtually any result would be a loss for them because there are so few seats that they could have but currently don’t. All the drama with the end of Sturgeon’s tenure and Yousaf’s brief leadership will not help them either (plus, of course, just the loss of Sturgeon as a very effective politician).
They do have a ridiculous proportion of Scotland’s seats right now, though. They won those seats completely fair and square, but FPTP makes them unbelievably overrepresented compared to their actual vote share. It’s a shame that they’re the biggest party that wants to actually do something about that