Undoubtedly the SNP are in trouble this election. Because MPs in Scotland really don’t matter. Whatever England decides, we get. Because of devolution the role of an MP is almost nothing too. Do ya think any MP can do anything about HMG foreign policy? Do you think Labour will grant Holyrood an independence referendum even if all MPs are SNP? It is an almost hopeless scenario for independence in Scotland at the moment, having been denied any democratic route. Turn out to be lowest in Scotland I’ll bet, which will appear then like a swing to Labour, but I bet it almost exactly corresponds with SNP voters not turning out this election instead
And this is a real shame, as the SNP have shown themselves to be the real opposition in the commons on many occasions. Labour and the Tories share almost all key policies.
There’s also the simple fact that there’s almost nowhere for the SNP to go but down. Virtually any result would be a loss for them because there are so few seats that they could have but currently don’t. All the drama with the end of Sturgeon’s tenure and Yousaf’s brief leadership will not help them either (plus, of course, just the loss of Sturgeon as a very effective politician).
They do have a ridiculous proportion of Scotland’s seats right now, though. They won those seats completely fair and square, but FPTP makes them unbelievably overrepresented compared to their actual vote share. It’s a shame that they’re the biggest party that wants to actually do something about that
This is the best summary I could come up with:
But the separatist outfit — which once rode so high it forced a referendum on Scotland’s continued part in the U.K. — has had an unenviable 18 months.
In fact, Diffley points out, prior to the last couple of decades, Labour’s dominance as the main party in Scotland had been considered “kind of unassailable” since the 1980s and 90s.
Negative reactions to Thatcherism, economic turmoil and industrial action, and the prominence of big name Scottish politicians like Donald Dewar and Gordon Brown, worked in Labour’s favor.
MRP models from other pollsters do not necessarily project the same massive reversal of fortune in Scotland’s central belt.
In the North East the SNP is battling the Conservatives to win over more rural, right-leaning voters and in the central belt it must combat Labour’s attempts to lure a broadly urban and left-leaning population.
Depending on the way it goes in the tossup seats on election night, this could spell results even more dire than the projections suggest, or a far smaller loss for the SNP than the party may fear.
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