China has begun its second day of military drills targeting Taiwan, in what it says is punishment for “separatist acts” after the inauguration of its new president on Monday.
The exercises, which involve Chinese military units from the air force, rocket force, navy, army, and coast guard, were announced suddenly on Thursday morning, with maps showing five approximate target areas in the sea surrounding Taiwan’s main island. Other areas also targeted Taiwan’s offshore islands, which are close to the Chinese mainland.
China’s defence ministry said the drills on Friday were testing its military’s ability to “seize power” and occupy key areas, in line with Beijing’s ultimate goal of annexing Taiwan. Taiwan’s government and people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but China’s ruler Xi Jinping has not renounced the use of force to take the island. Western intelligence has claimed Xi has told the People’s Liberation Army to be capable of an invasion by 2027.
Would you really expect them to show their full force in a preparatory exercise? Why would they do that?
To scare Taiwan into capitulating without firing a shot. “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” China is not going to invade Taiwan. They literally can’t risk damaging anything on the island. They need the people there to accept them willingly.
China is not as dumb as Russia. Their leaders are venal and power hungry, but not stupid. They know the thing that keeps them in power is economic growth. If they don’t have that, they can’t control their population. An invasion of Taiwan would put racheting sanctions on their economy, slowly strangling it.
I understand your point of view and I agree that an invasion of Taiwan doesn’t make a lot of practical sense, but I think you should also keep in mind the brutality China has demonstrated in Hong Kong. I don’t think the PRC is as concerned with consequences as they are with getting what they want, and with appearing to be in control. Continued Taiwanese independence makes them look weak.
Nothing triggers authoritarianism quite like defiance.
Chinas economy is already dying due to a variety of factors. Winnie Pooh can either invade now or soon it will be never