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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • Are friends necessary, or not really?

    Unless you are independently wealthy, you will need the support of other people in your life. This is not avoidable - you must learn to live and work with other humans, and hopefully also enjoy their company.

    The good news is that social skills are a thing that you can learn like any other skill. There are books about it, but the trouble with that is (1) advice in the book is cultural context dependent, and therefore most applicable in the time and place where the book was written, and (2) reading a book is an inherently non-social activity, and therefore not really contributing to developing the skill.

    The best way to learn social skills is through observation and practice - which means that you will have to put yourself in situations that feel uncomfortable, until you learn enough that you become comfortable. This is a lot like learning to ride a bike - you feel clumsy, unsteady and slow at first but if you keep doing it you learn to stay balanced, and eventually it feels natural. You have to push yourself past the point of discomfort.



  • This video is so disturbing, every time. Every detonation is an implied threat, a political message, a promise of violence, a show of power. Every detonation is an environmental catastrophe, a long-term cost that we’re still paying, both in the collection and refining of the nuclear material and in the detonation. Every detonation is an economic burden, human time and effort spent making a tool that only makes destruction. The US effectively bankrupted the USSR with this competition.

    The systemic cost of the whole thing is just mind-boggling. There’s really only one silver lining that I see. Humanity had access to a terrifying new weapon, the power to wipe itself out really. And we didn’t do it. At the time of highest ignorance, when very few people in the entire world really understood how bad it could be, and when political tensions were high, we did a lot of posturing but we didn’t actually do the worst we could have.

    It could have been so much worse, and we (collectively) chose not to make it that way. I do find some comfort in that.


  • It’s nearly impossible to mobilize a large force quickly, or covertly. There would be plenty of warning, especially if the US is involved because there’s an ocean in the way in either direction.

    If Western nations decide to attack Russia, I doubt the conflict will stay limited to Russia.

    • North Korea will probably support Russia militarily very quickly. They’re already supplying weapons, they have a close relationship, and they’re reasonably secure against counterattack because China would react very badly if NK were attacked directly.
    • Iran will join with Russia, but uncertain whether Iran will actually deploy its military in Europe (probably not), or take the opportunity to pursue their own goals in the middle east while the west is distracted.
    • China will probably play neutral for awhile, but continue to trade with Russia and sell them military equipment. China is circumspect, they won’t jump into a conflict for ideological reasons, though they’ll certainly quote ideological reasons in their propaganda. They will join the conflict when it benefits them and doesn’t present extreme risk. Most likely they will pursue their own goals in the south China sea (Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines) while the US is busy elsewhere.

    An attack from the West on Russia will balloon into a global conflict. It will be bad for everyone, even if it stays limited to conventional warfare.