Ok so here’s the rules

  • I just bet on red every time
  • I start with 1 dollar
  • every time I lose, I triple my previous bet
  • every time I win I restart

I’m going to simulate 10 games

  • Game 1 - Bet $1 Lose
  • Game 2 - Bet $3 Lose
  • Game 3 - Bet $9 Win $18
  • Game 4 - Bet $1 Lose
  • Game 5 - Bet $3 Lose
  • Game 6 - Bet $9 Win $18
  • Game 7 - Bet $1 Lose
  • Game 8 - Bet $3 Lose
  • Game 9 - Bet $9 Lose
  • Game 10 - Bet $18 Win $36

In this simulation I’m losing at a rate of 70%. In reality the lose rate is closer to 52%. I put in $54 but I’m walking away with $72, basically leaving the building with $18.

Another example. Let’s pretend I walk in with $100,000 to bet with. I lose my first 10 games and win the 11th.

  • 1 lose
  • 3 lose
  • 9 lose
  • 27 lose
  • 81 lose
  • 243 lose
  • 729 lose
  • 2187 lose
  • 6561 lose
  • 19683 lose
  • 59049 win $118098

$88573 spent out of pocket, $118098 won

Walk out with roughly $29525.

I get most casinos won’t let you be that high but it’s a pretty extreme example anyway, the likelyhood of losing 10/11 games on 48% odds is really unlikely.

So help me out here, what am I missing?

  • rjthyen@lemm.ee
    37·
    10 months ago

    I didn’t get through all the comments, but most of the top ones and haven’t yet seen the most basic casino check to stop these strategies is a table maximum. Same with doubling your bet each hand you lose at black jack, one bad run and you hit table max and you can’t raise your bet far enough

    • AwkwardLookMonkeyPuppet@lemmy.world
      2·
      10 months ago

      That’s easy though, you just go to higher max table. The hard part is having enough money to sustain the string of losses. And of course the casino sets minimum and max bets at tables, ensuring they don’t align with this strategy.

      • rjthyen@lemm.ee
        1·
        10 months ago

        That last part is key, higher max table comes with a higher minimum bet so the ratio stays roughly the same. I suppose you could move tables as your bet needed to increase and switch back to the low table if you manage to win one making cash reserves the main limiting factor, but I’ve always envisioned the table rules are set in a way to prevent someone with deep pockets from exploiting strategies