A coalition of ethnic armed militias in Myanmar have launched what could be the best possible chance to overthrow the military government that has controlled the country since a 2021 coup ousted the democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD).
If successful, this could be the groundwork for a more normalized democracy for a country that has historically been dominated by military juntas and dictators. Engagement from civil society has been high and is a key factor that can turn military victories into long term successes. Still, nothing is guaranteed and the fight is likely to be difficult.
On October 27, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of three ethnic armed groups launched a well-coordination offensive in the eastern Shan state, the largest of Myanmar’s seven states by land area. The surprise attack successfully captured several government military installations by the Chinese border and has also inspired other armed groups to launch their own successful campaigns against the repressive Tatmadaw or State Administration Council, as the junta is called in Myanmar.
Military & History did a great under-20m quick breakdown of the situation. I’ll edit this to include a link below.
While I’m happy for them, I’m having a hard time seeing how successful revolution does NOT devolve into a warring states scenario with either some faction(s) going back on the federalism style agreement to push for more central power for themselves, border disputes amongst the ethnic enclaves, or outright genocide and forced relocation.
Right now they have a common enemy and a workable framework (in theory). I hope I’m wrong, but I guess time will tell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLxVcdKbkuM
Piped link: https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=hLxVcdKbkuM&dark_mode=true&local=true