With all the talk of tariffs, I’ve seen more or less this argument:
“Once the tariffs go in place, companies will start manufacturing in the USA and that’s good thing.”
However, when I think about being able to manufacture something like a laptop computer, or a car, these are both operations that require a lot of things:
- the input components to build the thing
- skilled labor that can manufacture the thing
- supply-chains that are in place from initial build all the way to retail
The premise seems to be: “OK, tariffs go in, someone INSTANTLY sets up a company that manufactures X, then USA wins”.
However, for someone to want to take the “bet” on setting up a really expensive factory, they’d have to believe that the tariff will be in place a long time, because if it is NOT… then they have made a terrible investment and the new factory will be instantly non-viable.
Am I crazy? Am I missing something? I understand that it would be great if we had domestic manufacturing but it seems like the people that are behind tariffs think you just snap your fingers and there is a factory cranking out laptops, when in my understanding this is a process that requires a huge amount of money and time.
My thinking is that the amount of people / companies in the USA that have enough capital to start up a manufacturing company like this want to make sure it’s a relatively safe bet before pulling the trigger, and if past tariff behavior from Mr. Trump is any indication, we can’t count on these tariffs being present for a long time.
IMO there is something more at work here. I believe he is collapsing the economy on purpose and evaporating everyone’s savings, forcing them back into the labour force under any means. They want to go back to factory towns where workers have zero agency and are at the mercy of their employers. That is the end goal here, the rest of it is just the hand waving show to keep everyone distracted.
I find it increasingly hard to tell the difference between a mastermind playing 7D chess with the world, and someone just acting randomly and implementing all kinds of policies at a whim.
Putin is doing the planning, Trump can’t think
Trump was so proud of himself for using the word “reciprocal.” He likely didn’t know what it meant earlier this week.
It’s not that complex or Machiavellian.
Look at what rich people have done after every recession of the past 40 years and how what’s happened to their wealth after the recovery. The economy crashes forcing middle-class people to sell off what scant assets they own. Even people on the lower end of upper-class tend to sell off assets when the stock market crashes. Super rich people who have enough money to weather the economic downturn buy the dip, gobbling up all those assets people are selling. Then when the economy recovers the rich people make out like bandits (which they are).
That’s all that’s happening. He’s tanking the economy so Musk and his other rich friends can buy the dip and increase their wealth even more when the economy improves.
Time will tell. It’s all about the layers, but if you look at the current situation at face value, it makes very little sense, ergo something more sinister is a foot 3-4 steps down the road.
It makes complete sense if you are looking at it from the perspective of an oligarch. They are just trying to tank the economy to hoover up even more assets. They’re banking on an eventual recovery, after which they’ll be even richer and more powerful than they are now.
As with most things in life, assuming some grander Machiavellian scheme is usually wrong. People don’t think and plan like that outside of movies and TV. Most people, especially the very rich and powerful, only plan for the short term.
There is no 3-4 steps down the road. They’re just trying to repeat exactly what they did during/after the COVID recession. And the Great Recession. And the '01 dot-com recession, etc, etc, etc.
Except he is using a playbook built by other people that we’ve only seen the gist of. This is manufactured, not eventual. He is also removing all consumer and worker protections. There is more too it, but keep turning a blind eye to just “more of the same” and see where that gets ya. I am saying the same thing as you, but I am alluding to it being a byproduct and not the simple end goal. They want housing under their thumb as well as worker protections and healthcare. There is malicious intent there, I’m sure of it. It is more than the accumulation of wealth.
I don’t get it. Why would anyone be forced to sell their assets? Do they invest with money they actually need? They shouldn’t. Just wait out the storm.
Two things:
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People see because they see the markets going down and want to get out before it hits bottom.
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The bigger issue, though, is that a hell of a lot of people will lose their jobs and have no money. Remember the Great Recession? When the job market is that shitty and you lose your job, there aren’t other ones available. No job means no income. You can apply for unemployment insurance, but that only covers a fraction of the income from your last job. So people can’t afford to pay their bills. When you can’t afford utilities, rent, gas, etc, but you have a 401k sitting there, it becomes the only option to pull money out of that. It’s a super shitty decision to have to make, but when it’s a question of losing your home or sacrificing your retirement, short-term material needs win out.
That would be after their emergency funds run out, which should be at least a year in. But yeah, when it lasts many years…
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And we haven’t even addressed the whole reason manufacturing left in the first place. It’s so much cheaper to do it overseas, even accounting for shipping. It will cost America much more to produce items internally–and who is going to buy these extra-expensive items? America is a service economy and most people are working at Walmart or McDonald’s. These people can barely afford the cheap Chinese version, much less the expensive American version.
So I guess they’re hoping wages will increase more than the extra expensive incurred by making our own items? Not going to happen, not in a million years.
That’s where the child labor comes in. I wish I was kidding.
Prison/slave labor as well.
And we haven’t even addressed the whole reason manufacturing left in the first place. It’s so much cheaper to do it overseas, even accounting for shipping.
Well, I think the idea is that with the tariffs this will no longer be true. There will be a Chinese widget that cost $5 from China with $90 of tariffs on it (making it $95 to the end user) and an American product that costs $55. That American one is only cheaper in a tariff’d world.
But they’re not going to increase wages to account for us having to spend 55 dollars on something that used to cost 5. So the end result is just that people end up with less overall. I’m cool with limiting consumerism, but this isn’t the way to do it imo. And it’s not going to make us “richer” as a nation.
In both scenarios the profit margin is removed, or the customers are bearing the significant increase in cost. Hence the recession - the stock market plummets or inflation goes up. Or both.
Not to mention any new factories will have drastically fewer jobs than the factories that left due to newer factories being highly automated. The cost of retrofitting existing factories has stopped many companies from upgrading to keep higher their quarterly profits for investors. If they are forced to build, they will invest in money saving long run cost savings like automation.
Yeah, this is a great point. A fully automated car company in the USA is great for those who want to buy cars, but for those who want a job building cars, it does nothing. The observation that these NEW firms would be set up with massive automation makes perfect intuitive sense to me, because who’d invest in a brand new manufacturing firm and use last century technology to do so?
do people really think
Gonna stop you right there. No. The answer is that no, they don’t think.
Assume that, for the first time in his life, Donald meant what he said. Pretend that he won’t change his mind or panic, and assume that the same GOP which keeps missing Speaker of the House election layups won’t break and let the Democrats take the tariff power away
The midterm congressional elections are always a swing to the other party. The Democrats are more likely to take at least one chamber of Congress than Trump is to say something dumb. But let’s assume that for some reason they only take one, and you get gridlock enough to preserve the tarrifs until the next POTUS takes office in January 2029.
A factory would need to break even by that time to be worth a quick investment. And not just break even, but leave you with more wealth than if you just bought a bunch of crypto and stayed home until this all passes. And if you signed an deal today, your break even points might be as soon as only 45 months away.
You can’t even get a car loan with a team that short.
They don’t “think” in general. Abstract concepts and long-term consequences do not trouble their minds.
“But you just like… screw stuff together, right? Cut the basic materials to make the parts, put it together, box it up, ship it out, right?”
- Someone I legitimately spoke to once. We were talking about assembling TVs.
I find that people who’ve never assembled anything more complex than Ikea furniture or something more technical than changed a pipe or switch in their home, tend to think production exists in exactly two levels: Low-tech, hand-tools-at-most labor which can be easily spun up because “anyone can do it”, and ultra-high-tech stuff like computer chips which need highly specialized factories, but where a few factories can mostly satisfy nationwide demand.
Creating a single permanent job costs about 100k in investment. Any potential profits will only hold as long as the tariffs are in place, and as the tariffs are as volatile as Trump, nobody is going to spend that amount of money on an idiots folly.
I see a lot of people saying “someone will build factories” and a lot less people saying “I will pay to build that factory”
I agree, this is bad logic. That said, that’s not what I hear from the current regime when I hear them talking about tariffs. What I hear is them thinking this will force countries to lower barriers to Americans doing business abroad. Once those barriers are lowered, tariffs are reduced or go away altogether. For the record, I do not think this is good policy, but the intent of the policy (at lease as I read it) isn’t to suddenly move all manufacturing back to the United States.
I’m smart enough to understand that setting up domestic manufacturing is much more complicated and expensive than I could guess. I also know that getting a project like this from concept to steady, reliable, marketable production takes years.
I also know that the people who think this is quick and easy will proudly wear their MAGA hats today.
Maybe dumb people who bought the Trump line on tariffs think that, but most people know it’s not true.
All the talk about bringing back manufacturing is just a smoke screen to cover the fact they’re intentionally tanking the economy so the oligarchs can buy the dip and get even richer when the economy recovers. That’s all it is.
only the trumpers think so, and no its not, its actually more expensive, you have to build up your own factories, manufacturing plants which cost billions and years to build, and luring TALENt, is going to be very difficult
We have a very difficult time recruiting workers to existing manufacturing plants that have very competitive salaries.
MAGA Morons are fantasizing that all these new high-paying manufacturing jobs will be coming back, but thats not the plan.
The new factories will be sweat shops without safety/ health/ environmental regulations, paying minimum wage (or less, if they can end it). They will primarily rely on teenage child labor, using young people who are desperate for jobs after all the fast food jobs have been automated.
Thats the Sociopathic Oligarchs’ dream.
It is a simple solution to a complicated problem. For a segment of society, it sounds good enough.
Why would you move to the u.s, and have to pay tariffs to every other country, except for just one?
Also because these tariffs are so overreaching they also include component parts. So you can’t build your laptop because all of the chips are built outside the US so by being in the US you actually increase your exposure to tariffs. Outside the US you can build your laptop without having to deal with tariffs on every single component, then let Walmart pay tariffs to import.
