Can someone more knowledgeable about the subject explain the ties between these anti-junta forces? Is there goodwill between them or could it end up like the Syria situation?
There is some cooperation but a lot of rivalry. Current offensive is coordination between only 3 out of a dozen or more guerilla forces called Brotherhood Alliance - Arakan Army (which is the ethnic Arakanese who are predominantly buddhist, recently formed in the past decade when the Rohingya militants became active in Arakan), MNDAA - which is Kokang based populated by ethinc Han Chinese who escaped the Manchurians (and Qing dynasty) and settled in Burma, and Ta’ang National Liberation Army who represents a small ethnic group numbering a few hundred thousand at most in Northeast Burma. Since WW2 many of them fight amongst themselves for control of drug trade, black market trade, and territory where they tax businesses and people for protection. The biggest independent militia in the world - the United Wa State Army with 30,000 soldiers are neutral to the current conflict, are aligned with the military junta to a certain extent, but are also supplying arms to these other militias. Now all the ones I’ve mentioned are called Ethnic Armed Orgs (EAOs) or non-Burman.
The government in exile formed by elected law makers from 2021 election who escaped abroad are supporting spontaneous civilian militias in various parts of lowland Burma, and also has a small armed group they have formed with civilian and student protesters from 2021. They are not well-organized, and thus are not coordinating with the Brotherhood Alliance, but are likely taking advantage of the situation. This government in exile has tried to arrange talks with all the EAOs into an alliance, but thus far have not been successful.
Thank you for the informative write-up!
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Relevant video on the topic from Channel 4
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When active duty soldiers from one country enter another uninvited, isn’t that called an invasion? Is Myanmar invading India?
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Myanmar’s military has battled ethnic minority and other insurgencies for decades but a 2021 coup has brought unprecedented coordination between anti-military forces that are mounting the biggest challenge to the army in years.
A parallel government formed by pro-democracy politicians to oppose the military, and allied with some insurgent factions, has launched a “Road to Naypyitaw” campaign which it says is aimed at taking control of the capital.
Myanmar has been in turmoil since the 2021 coup, when the military ousted a government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, ending a decade of tentative democratic reform.
The 2021 coup dashed hopes for reform and triggered a groundswell of opposition that has united pro-democracy activists in towns and cities with ethnic minority forces fighting for self-determination in hinterlands.
The Arakan Army (AA) rebel group fighting for autonomy in Rakhine State said on Wednesday that dozens of police and military men had surrendered or been captured as its forces advanced.
Separately, a video posted on social media by anti-military forces in Kayah State, and verified by Reuters, showed wounded junta troops surrendering to insurgents, who were seen offering medical help.
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