Idk, when you look at the entire picture, does Trump not have the far easier path to 270 this year? He only has to win 2 states (PA & GA) and that’s it, he wins. Kamala has to win at the minimum 3, and if she loses PA, it becomes even harder for her. Trump could just spend all of his money campaigning in those 2 states and get back in the White House. Yet these odds seem to disagree with me.

Am I trippin?

  • BadmanDan@lemmy.worldOP
    42·
    3 months ago

    I don’t think that’ll matter, Trump BARELY won MI in 2016 by less than 10k votes, and that was with Russian Psyop Jill Stein stealing votes from Hillary there.

    In 2020, Michigan had the highest youth turnout in the country and Biden won it by 150k votes.

    I don’t see how Trump can flip that state back, those are insane margins.

    • jordanlund@lemmy.world
      51·
      3 months ago

      Clinton in Michigan was just stupid, she thought it was in the bag and failed to campaign there. That hurt her more than Stein did.

      But the youth vote is fickle, they turned against Biden there this year, he was never going to win MI which is one of the reasons he dropped out.

      • BadmanDan@lemmy.worldOP
        2·
        3 months ago

        Regardless of turnout, I just don’t see a 150k margin being overcome in just 4 years. Harris would have to lose an insane amount of voters and Trump would have to gain a lot of voters all within 4 years. I just don’t see him winning that state.