Ok so here’s the rules
- I just bet on red every time
- I start with 1 dollar
- every time I lose, I triple my previous bet
- every time I win I restart
I’m going to simulate 10 games
- Game 1 - Bet $1 Lose
- Game 2 - Bet $3 Lose
- Game 3 - Bet $9 Win $18
- Game 4 - Bet $1 Lose
- Game 5 - Bet $3 Lose
- Game 6 - Bet $9 Win $18
- Game 7 - Bet $1 Lose
- Game 8 - Bet $3 Lose
- Game 9 - Bet $9 Lose
- Game 10 - Bet $18 Win $36
In this simulation I’m losing at a rate of 70%. In reality the lose rate is closer to 52%. I put in $54 but I’m walking away with $72, basically leaving the building with $18.
Another example. Let’s pretend I walk in with $100,000 to bet with. I lose my first 10 games and win the 11th.
- 1 lose
- 3 lose
- 9 lose
- 27 lose
- 81 lose
- 243 lose
- 729 lose
- 2187 lose
- 6561 lose
- 19683 lose
- 59049 win $118098
$88573 spent out of pocket, $118098 won
Walk out with roughly $29525.
I get most casinos won’t let you be that high but it’s a pretty extreme example anyway, the likelyhood of losing 10/11 games on 48% odds is really unlikely.
So help me out here, what am I missing?
Yes but a 45% win chance is the same long term losing plan no matter how much you bet. I could bet 10 times the amount every time I lose and I’ll still have a 45% chance of winning.
Yes that is true… if you end at a “random” point (running out of money for example). But if you can always end at a win (particularly a large one after a string of many losses) then that changes things, the odds become much less relevant because you are manipulating them.*
The problem is that consistently doing so would require genuinely unlimited money and no betting limits, since the number of losses-that-can-happen-in-a-row is itself unlimited. With that little detail the Martingale system would actually work.
Then again if you have unlimited money then why bother to gamble?
*(Actually I sorta take back my first comment in this thread, the odds aren’t why to triple, just growing the pot faster each win is)