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Cake day: October 9th, 2023

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  • I think Netanyahu is choosing his words carefully to get the ceasefire through (which after all he proposed) without alienating the hard(er) right wing.

    Here’s what he actually said:

    Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: The destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel

    Israel will continue to insist these conditions are met before a permanent ceasefire is put in place. The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter

    The thing is that all of those conditions, except for the hostages, are pretty subjective. Biden said in his speech that the capabilities of Hamas and the threat to Israel have already been eliminated. Nothing stops Netanyahu from declaring the same tomorrow.

    That leaves the hostages. But in the three phase plan, freeing the hostages comes before the permanent ceasefire. So again, the peace plan is not inconsistent with his latest statements. I think he is simply using a harder posture to help win support.




  • Israel seized the Gazan side of the crossing from Hamas. That means the crossing used to be shared by Egypt and Hamas, and now it’s shared by Egypt and Israel.

    This is not a “treaty violation”. The 2005 Agreement on Movement and Access was between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, not Israel and Egypt. The PA, not Hamas, was authorized to administer the Gazan side of the crossing on behalf of Israel, provided they were supervised by the EU. Hamas has no rights at all under this agreement.

    Egypt may prefer its old partner to its new one, but ultimately it has zero say over who administers the Gazan side of the crossing.

    At no point did anyone take Egypt’s side of the crossing away from Egypt. And since crossing requires permission from both sides, Egypt can control what goes through the crossing now just as it did before.