Polls indicate a surge for the right across the continent in next month’s ballots but the centrists are still likely to hold sway in parliament
Far-right gains in next month’s European elections will be hard, if not impossible, to parlay into more power in parliament, experts say, but they could boost nationalist parties in EU capitals – with potentially greater consequences.
Polling suggests far-right and hardline conservative parties could finish first in nine EU states, including Austria, France and the Netherlands, in the polls between 6 and 9 June, and second or third in another nine, including Germany, Spain, Portugal and Sweden.
The predicted rise of the far- right Identity and Democracy (ID) group and the conservative-nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) has sparked speculation about a “sharp right turn” in the European parliament, potentially jeopardising key EU projects such as the green deal.
ID, which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in France, Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy, Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Austria’s Freedom party (FPÖ) and Vlaams Belang in Belgium, are on track to be the big winners – from 59 MEPs to perhaps 85.
Unfortunately, I think it’s unevitable for the far right to keep growing. Europe is suffering the contradictions of global capitalism devouring itself as it cannot continue increasing its profit margins, which has very noticeable consequences on people’s lives. Plenty of people aren’t going to turn towards far left options because, simply put, they’re prone to bigotry, and they’re never going to accept any position that aims to fully integrate everyone in freedom and equality. Many of those used to at least somewhat trust their traditional conservative parties, but once they grow angry enough, they need to find a solution - even if it isn’t real, even if it won’t solve their problems. And then they find a demagogue offering them a boogeyman, be they Jews, Muslims or queer people.
A big issue that I don’t see being discussed a lot is that randomized polling has become more difficult as less people are willing to pick up their phone for unknown numbers nowadays.
Most polling is now opt-in, meaning that the data will be biased towards the groups who want to express their opinions the most (this tends to be the far right). Not saying the polling is wrong but perhaps not entirely accurate
I have a few thoughts on this. And before you downvote me, read to the end and have a genuine reflection.
- Europe is facing a huge problem with crimes committed by immigrants.
- Despite of the spin “we need a workforce to fulfill low paying, low profile jobs”, most of the so called “doctors” and “engineers” prefer to use social benefits instead of getting a job.
- Most of the immigrants prefer to stay in “ghettos” instead of integrating into a society they moved into.
Because of that and many more similar issues, people turn into dangerous, populist ideas. Those far-right movements prey on nations insecurities and gain support by hitting the “sweet spot”. And the worst part is that the central views get boxed as left or right winged which basically undercuts what they are tying to sell.
And just for the record, the Polish PiS party is not far right. It’s a populist, socialist party playing a church card every time it’s convenient.
Citation needed.
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“Hear me out, guys: what if hordes of lazy and antisocial foreigners are causing demagoguery” 🤦
Fuck off with that xenophobic othering bullshit🖕
Ignoring your second sentence as it detracts from anything you said afterwards.
I’ll like to focus on the first point.
If crimes are being committed disproportionately by expats, we should look at the economic situation of those committing crimes vs other demographics, as there is a large crossover.
So that leads us to the question, is it expats commuting more crime or is it poor people committing more crime as expats are generally also in the poorest section of a society.
Correlation isn’t causation.
Ice cream sales align very well with drownings. Does this mean ice cream makes people drown or more people eat ice cream on hot days and they also go in water more in hot days.
Edit: To take your second point. Anecdotally from the UK, it’s the people born here that are more likely to be claiming benefits and having loads of children, not the expats coming here. They actually work very hard. The Asian community is always out feeding the homeless and the first group out cleaning the streets of Manchester after riots a few years ago and after the Scot’s came down for football and tore up the city. They were the first ones out after the Manchester bombing bringing food and stuff for emergency responders.
To your third point. Sure we have communities popping up which are predominantly the same race of people, but wouldn’t you want to live in a place with people you have more in common with, integration takes time.
The only community that I rarely see doing anything for the community and / or integrating is the Jewish community (nothing against them, just an observation).
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Mainstream parties have two options right now: either addressing immigration in a humane way (making migrant processing faster, putting some low bars on immigration, like a 6th grade exam in the country’s language) or they wait until those guys deal with them the wrong way
Read “Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America” it gives a real reason why this is happening.
They hate you because you speak the truth
Nobody’s hating him, we’re pointing out his arguments are untrue and pushing harmful rhetoric. People who hate him would be calling for his banning, not trying to argue against his rhetoric.
