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Cake day: 2023年6月13日

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  • If you don’t have independent confirmation for the specific event, you could do a simple application of Bayes’ theorem.
    If (say) FOX is reporting something and you’re not sure how much credence to give it, ask yourself:

    A. How often does this sort of thing happen in general? (Check historical sources.)

    B. How often does FOX claim this type of thing happens? (Check Google trends.)

    C. How likely is FOX to report this if it actually happens? (If it fits their narrative, probably close to 1.)

    Then you can estimate the likelihood of the report being true as AC/B.